The key to a lasting peace lies in control of that eastern frontier
Timothy Garton AshSource:
Close the entire text of the article here
'Never again!' Europeans cried after World War I. Then it happened again. 'Never again!' Europeans cried after 1945; then it happened again. 'Never again!' Europeans cried after Bosnia, in 1995, and now it has happened again. I hope as strongly as I doubt that the Minsk ceasefire agreement, brokered by Angela Merkel's heroic efforts, will lead to peace. Yet even in the unlikely event that it does, look what we have already allowed to unfold.
Another European country has been torn apart by force. According to UN estimates, at least 5,400 people have been killed, some 13,000 wounded and 1.6 million driven out of their homes. Russia has formally annexed Crimea, part of a neighbouring sovereign state. Last week's 'Minsk 2' ceasefire agreement says Ukraine will regain full control of its eastern frontier with Russia only by the end of this year, and only if it holds its elections in and gives constitutional 'special status' to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It also says the Kiev government must go on paying pensions, salaries and 'utility bills' for these regions. Think about it. You only get to lock the back door to your house if you cede your sitting room to someone who is holding a gun to your head – and you must go on paying his bills.
Reasonable people can disagree about the best means to counter such shameless aggression, but at least we should have no illusions about what is happening before our eyes.Vladimir Putin deliberately confronts the European Union with a different, older and worse European way of doing politics. Might is right. Black is white. War is back on the high road and law limps to the ditch like a wounded refugee.
All this in a country whose territorial integrity Russia, the United States and Britain – but then, who gives a damn about Britain these days? – solemnly swore to uphold in the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in return for a newly independent Ukraine agreeing to give up one of the world's largest stocks of nuclear weapons. I quote: 'the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment… to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine'. Signed by Boris Yeltsin, Bill Clinton and John Major. Imagine the lesson this breach of trust will send to other nuclear or would-be nuclear powers: whatever you do, don't believe a word of any such assurances and don't give up your nuclear weapons.
Moscow's law of the jungle confronts Brussels' jungle of law. Who's winning? 'Russia is winning' answers the well-known American 'realist', John Mearsheimer. So what should we do about it? 'The West should seek to make Ukraine a neutral buffer state between Russia and NATO. It should look like Austria during the Cold War. Toward that end, the West should explicitly take European Union and NATO expansion off the table'. Well, thank you Professor Realist. Perhaps you would like to seal the deal yourself? We have the perfect location for your realpolitik summit: Yalta, where in 1945 Franklin D Roosevelt and Winston Churchill gave an ambiguous legitimacy to the Soviet occupation of eastern Europe. That's Yalta in now annexed Crimea.
What right have we to instruct other independent, sovereign countries to be neutral buffer states? Garry Kasparov, who knows Russia somewhat better than Mearsheimer, recently tweeted: 'the "realists" seem happy to condemn millions of Ukrainians to life as prisoners in occupied territory. In Europe in the 21st-century.' The other day, I spoke to Kasparov about Ukraine. He had been in Kiev to mark the 20th anniversary of that 1994 memorandum, and his take on this tragedy is bold and original, like his chess. He insists that this is not a conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Instead, he sees it as a contest between two Russias. With poetic exaggeration he calls them Kievan Rus and the Golden Horde.
Even if the opinion polls that suggest Putin enjoys sky-high popularity in Russia today are credible, we should not make the mistake of confusing Putin with Russia. Adolf Hitler also enjoyed huge popularity once, as did Slobodan Milosevic. Peoples can be led down disastrous paths, especially when skilful propaganda exploits deep national myths and hurts. A few years later, the nation wakes up and starts paying the price. To be anti-Putin is not to be anti-Russian. It is to be more long-sightedly pro-Russian: to support those embattled Russians who represent the other Russia.
Notice that Putin is violating the very principle that he has always insisted should be the foundation of international relations: the unconditional sovereignty of states. But, you may exclaim, what humbug for countries that invaded Iraq to excoriate others for violating sovereignty! To which the answer is: yes, the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq was wrong, legally, morally and strategically, but two wrongs don't make a right.
In Syria, others may point out, we have killing fields that make Ukraine look almost peaceful and the UN counts a staggering 3.8 million refugees. What is the West doing about that? Are Arab lives worth less than European ones, Muslim than Christian? Every other week, I wake up thinking 'shouldn't I write about Syria?' But quite apart from the fact that I know much less about the Middle East than about Europe, what I do learn from the experts does not point to any clear way forward. There seem to be just too many groups on the ground locked in conflict and backed by too many external powers (including Russia, supporting Bashir al-Assad).
Here, by contrast, for all the complexity of Ukraine, there is a way forward. It can be summarised in 14 words: Putin must withdraw his forces and Ukraine have full control of its eastern frontier. So, unlike in Syria, the key lies in a single political actor changing his behaviour. To be sure, this would not overnight stop angry separatists fighting for their Donetsk People's Republic. In eastern Ukraine, as in Bosnia, as in Syria, the radicalising brutality of war has turned neighbours into enemies. Great statecraft and imagination would then be required from Kiev to re-build an effectively federal Ukrainian state, one in which people who identify themselves as Russians could again feel reasonably at home. But the path to any lasting peace starts with those 14 words.
Timothy Garton Ash is Professor of European Studies at Oxford University, where he currently leads the freespeechdebate.com project, and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. His latest book is Facts are Subversive: Political Writing from a Decade Without a Name
Interesting. Why are Ukraine borders sacred while Yugolavian borders were not? Why is Ukraine important to be kept intact while Serbia has to be broken up?
Is international law not the same for all?
US has broken international law so many times in Europe but now wants to lecture the Russians on it.
You can't accuse Russia of hypocracy because hypocracy was the face of US first.
(Peggy, 24 February 2015 03:23)
First of all, according to the CE of B92 forums sj, the US has collapsed and run out of cash so obviously the $5B is a myth, always according to the CE of B92 forums sj.
Second, Putin is not reacting to anything in Ukraine because according to the Kremlin, Russia is not involved at all in Ukraine. You don't believe the Kremlin in regards to that?!
P.S. CE = Chief Economist.
(icj1, 19 February 2015 23:21)
The CTC has got you there, commentator. The CTC is using his special Albanian calculator that only multiplies but never dives or subtracts so you get 2+2=72.
CTC are you sure you’re not using Timothy Ash as a nom deplume? His analysis is exactly as yours – a complete mystery to all but himself.
P.S. CTC = Chief Toilet Cleaner
(sj, 23 February 2015 11:49)
Now, that is a word composition I never thought of seeing. Kudos my friend, you have reached incredible heights of creativity. Is it really yours or did you pick it up from RT and similar :).
(Reader, 22 February 2015 18:09)
You are right! Because right now THERE IS A NEW HITLER IN EUROPE: HIS NAME IS VLADIMIR PUTIN : ruSSia!!, but europeans are acting like cowards again, not protecting /helping Ukraine to defende herself from open agression from Moscow! >>> just like in 1939 when they sold peaceful and democratic Czechoslovakia to Hitler, thinking (wrongly) that that would appease the devil! May God help IUkraine! Amem!
(JOHN JOHN, 22 February 2015 01:57)
Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary, said there is a “real and present danger” that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will launch a campaign of undercover attacks to destabilise the Baltic states on Nato’s eastern flank.
He added that Putin might try to test Nato’s resolve with the same Kremlin-backed subversion used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
(JOHN JOHN, 22 February 2015 01:54)
Eventually the logic of sensible cooperation between ALL European states (Russia is Europe too) will be irresistible and our mad cousins from across the ocean will leave the continent alone.
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
Russia is aware of the advanced Shield technology of the US. Putin watches with envy, the successful application of the Shield in protecting Israel from fanatic Arabs. The bottom line, which Putin knows very well, is that far more NATO missiles will reach their mark in Russia than the other way around. So, in the end, Vlad will take one of those little pills that will reduce his aggression to a tolerable level. And then Putin will sound Russia's retreat from ALL of the Ukraine. Instead, little Vlad can go home and kick his dog.
(EU Citizen, 21 February 2015 06:17)
Of course you are.So is the albo icj1.All troll are.However, be aware all trolls will run forcover pretty soon.
(Gotsefromohrid, 20 February 2015 18:39)
The Ukrainians should have left the Russian in Eastern Ukraine in Peace and ukraine would have had peace.
Instead the embarked upon an Military offensive against the Russians and now they have to pay the price for their Foolishness listening to their Western supporters.
Its the Western Economical greed for the resourses in Eastern Ukraine which Fuels this war all the time.
Continue with that and the peoples of Central-Europe will pay an even heavier price in deaths because,
you can not win by provoking the Russians and Russia.
It will be the West who will back down and abandon their support to Ukraine and Balticum,
they will not risk a Worldwar for those countries with millions and millons of deaths.
The only way to achieve peace in former Ukraine is for the criminal murderous American installed Zionist-Nazi junta to be militarily crushed. Until that happens the carnage will continue. Freedom for Novorossiya and her long suffering people!
(Jim, 20 February 2015 12:33)
No, Putin is reacting desperately to provocation created by the USA (the $5B remember?) designed so "NATO can come to the rescue".
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
First of all, according to the CE of B92 forums sj, the US has collapsed and run out of cash so obviously the $5B is a myth, always according to the CE of B92 forums sj.
Second, Putin is not reacting to anything in Ukraine because according to the Kremlin, Russia is not involved at all in Ukraine. You don't believe the Kremlin in regards to that?!
P.S. CE = Chief Economist.
(icj1, 19 February 2015 23:21)
The solution is actually these 14 words Tim:
"Europe will be free and whole when NATO disbands and the USA stops warmongering".
That's the key, Ukraine is just a symptom, not the cause, we've got to get these lunatic Dr Strangelove types in NATO HQ packing back to Washington.
To say that "Putin started it" is completely ridiculous, are we seriously to believe that the coup last year was planned by the Kremlin so that unrest would ensue giving Russia a reason to intervene? If you believe that then their definitely were no moon landings :)
No, Putin is reacting desperately to provocation created by the USA (the $5B remember?) designed so "NATO can come to the rescue".
It's all so obvious to serious people that it's a joke. But you keep trying Tim to turn things inside out, it's always good for a laugh.
Eventually the logic of sensible cooperation between ALL European states (Russia is Europe too) will be irresistible and our mad cousins from across the ocean will leave the continent alone.
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
Absurd and promoting further hate and escalation. Of course, Putin has to back up on his illegitimate incursion into the East Ukraine, but Crimeea is a different matter in this context. And secondly, how did all these happened? Did Putin woke up one day and sending Russian troops into former Ukraine? Or, perhaps a more truthful alternative, is that UE played to arrogant in accommodating a - asked for, loan which in turn separated Ukrainians in pro-Russians and pro-Europeans with a big emphasize on Ukraine joining today's most powerful military alliance - NATO, at Russian borders... The rest is history. is only a consequence. As the former MI-6 chief said yesterday, this actual situation is awful bad for Ukrainians but it might be the best of all bad available to us... And he continue saying that Russians will always go further than us, that if we have thousands of dead people today, Western countries arming Ukrainians might bring that number in tens of thousands... And then what?
(Dan Victor, 18 February 2015 18:03)
The solution is actually these 14 words Tim:
"Europe will be free and whole when NATO disbands and the USA stops warmongering".
That's the key, Ukraine is just a symptom, not the cause, we've got to get these lunatic Dr Strangelove types in NATO HQ packing back to Washington.
To say that "Putin started it" is completely ridiculous, are we seriously to believe that the coup last year was planned by the Kremlin so that unrest would ensue giving Russia a reason to intervene? If you believe that then their definitely were no moon landings :)
No, Putin is reacting desperately to provocation created by the USA (the $5B remember?) designed so "NATO can come to the rescue".
It's all so obvious to serious people that it's a joke. But you keep trying Tim to turn things inside out, it's always good for a laugh.
Eventually the logic of sensible cooperation between ALL European states (Russia is Europe too) will be irresistible and our mad cousins from across the ocean will leave the continent alone.
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
The only way to achieve peace in former Ukraine is for the criminal murderous American installed Zionist-Nazi junta to be militarily crushed. Until that happens the carnage will continue. Freedom for Novorossiya and her long suffering people!
(Jim, 20 February 2015 12:33)
The Ukrainians should have left the Russian in Eastern Ukraine in Peace and ukraine would have had peace.
Instead the embarked upon an Military offensive against the Russians and now they have to pay the price for their Foolishness listening to their Western supporters.
Its the Western Economical greed for the resourses in Eastern Ukraine which Fuels this war all the time.
Continue with that and the peoples of Central-Europe will pay an even heavier price in deaths because,
you can not win by provoking the Russians and Russia.
It will be the West who will back down and abandon their support to Ukraine and Balticum,
they will not risk a Worldwar for those countries with millions and millons of deaths.
Of course you are.So is the albo icj1.All troll are.However, be aware all trolls will run forcover pretty soon.
(Gotsefromohrid, 20 February 2015 18:39)
Interesting. Why are Ukraine borders sacred while Yugolavian borders were not? Why is Ukraine important to be kept intact while Serbia has to be broken up?
Is international law not the same for all?
US has broken international law so many times in Europe but now wants to lecture the Russians on it.
You can't accuse Russia of hypocracy because hypocracy was the face of US first.
(Peggy, 24 February 2015 03:23)
First of all, according to the CE of B92 forums sj, the US has collapsed and run out of cash so obviously the $5B is a myth, always according to the CE of B92 forums sj.
Second, Putin is not reacting to anything in Ukraine because according to the Kremlin, Russia is not involved at all in Ukraine. You don't believe the Kremlin in regards to that?!
P.S. CE = Chief Economist.
(icj1, 19 February 2015 23:21)
The CTC has got you there, commentator. The CTC is using his special Albanian calculator that only multiplies but never dives or subtracts so you get 2+2=72.
CTC are you sure you’re not using Timothy Ash as a nom deplume? His analysis is exactly as yours – a complete mystery to all but himself.
P.S. CTC = Chief Toilet Cleaner
(sj, 23 February 2015 11:49)
Absurd and promoting further hate and escalation. Of course, Putin has to back up on his illegitimate incursion into the East Ukraine, but Crimeea is a different matter in this context. And secondly, how did all these happened? Did Putin woke up one day and sending Russian troops into former Ukraine? Or, perhaps a more truthful alternative, is that UE played to arrogant in accommodating a - asked for, loan which in turn separated Ukrainians in pro-Russians and pro-Europeans with a big emphasize on Ukraine joining today's most powerful military alliance - NATO, at Russian borders... The rest is history. is only a consequence. As the former MI-6 chief said yesterday, this actual situation is awful bad for Ukrainians but it might be the best of all bad available to us... And he continue saying that Russians will always go further than us, that if we have thousands of dead people today, Western countries arming Ukrainians might bring that number in tens of thousands... And then what?
(Dan Victor, 18 February 2015 18:03)
No, Putin is reacting desperately to provocation created by the USA (the $5B remember?) designed so "NATO can come to the rescue".
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
First of all, according to the CE of B92 forums sj, the US has collapsed and run out of cash so obviously the $5B is a myth, always according to the CE of B92 forums sj.
Second, Putin is not reacting to anything in Ukraine because according to the Kremlin, Russia is not involved at all in Ukraine. You don't believe the Kremlin in regards to that?!
P.S. CE = Chief Economist.
(icj1, 19 February 2015 23:21)
You are right! Because right now THERE IS A NEW HITLER IN EUROPE: HIS NAME IS VLADIMIR PUTIN : ruSSia!!, but europeans are acting like cowards again, not protecting /helping Ukraine to defende herself from open agression from Moscow! >>> just like in 1939 when they sold peaceful and democratic Czechoslovakia to Hitler, thinking (wrongly) that that would appease the devil! May God help IUkraine! Amem!
(JOHN JOHN, 22 February 2015 01:57)
Now, that is a word composition I never thought of seeing. Kudos my friend, you have reached incredible heights of creativity. Is it really yours or did you pick it up from RT and similar :).
(Reader, 22 February 2015 18:09)
Eventually the logic of sensible cooperation between ALL European states (Russia is Europe too) will be irresistible and our mad cousins from across the ocean will leave the continent alone.
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
Russia is aware of the advanced Shield technology of the US. Putin watches with envy, the successful application of the Shield in protecting Israel from fanatic Arabs. The bottom line, which Putin knows very well, is that far more NATO missiles will reach their mark in Russia than the other way around. So, in the end, Vlad will take one of those little pills that will reduce his aggression to a tolerable level. And then Putin will sound Russia's retreat from ALL of the Ukraine. Instead, little Vlad can go home and kick his dog.
(EU Citizen, 21 February 2015 06:17)
Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary, said there is a “real and present danger” that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will launch a campaign of undercover attacks to destabilise the Baltic states on Nato’s eastern flank.
He added that Putin might try to test Nato’s resolve with the same Kremlin-backed subversion used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
(JOHN JOHN, 22 February 2015 01:54)
No, Putin is reacting desperately to provocation created by the USA (the $5B remember?) designed so "NATO can come to the rescue".
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
First of all, according to the CE of B92 forums sj, the US has collapsed and run out of cash so obviously the $5B is a myth, always according to the CE of B92 forums sj.
Second, Putin is not reacting to anything in Ukraine because according to the Kremlin, Russia is not involved at all in Ukraine. You don't believe the Kremlin in regards to that?!
P.S. CE = Chief Economist.
(icj1, 19 February 2015 23:21)
Absurd and promoting further hate and escalation. Of course, Putin has to back up on his illegitimate incursion into the East Ukraine, but Crimeea is a different matter in this context. And secondly, how did all these happened? Did Putin woke up one day and sending Russian troops into former Ukraine? Or, perhaps a more truthful alternative, is that UE played to arrogant in accommodating a - asked for, loan which in turn separated Ukrainians in pro-Russians and pro-Europeans with a big emphasize on Ukraine joining today's most powerful military alliance - NATO, at Russian borders... The rest is history. is only a consequence. As the former MI-6 chief said yesterday, this actual situation is awful bad for Ukrainians but it might be the best of all bad available to us... And he continue saying that Russians will always go further than us, that if we have thousands of dead people today, Western countries arming Ukrainians might bring that number in tens of thousands... And then what?
(Dan Victor, 18 February 2015 18:03)
Michael Fallon, the UK Defence Secretary, said there is a “real and present danger” that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will launch a campaign of undercover attacks to destabilise the Baltic states on Nato’s eastern flank.
He added that Putin might try to test Nato’s resolve with the same Kremlin-backed subversion used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
(JOHN JOHN, 22 February 2015 01:54)
You are right! Because right now THERE IS A NEW HITLER IN EUROPE: HIS NAME IS VLADIMIR PUTIN : ruSSia!!, but europeans are acting like cowards again, not protecting /helping Ukraine to defende herself from open agression from Moscow! >>> just like in 1939 when they sold peaceful and democratic Czechoslovakia to Hitler, thinking (wrongly) that that would appease the devil! May God help IUkraine! Amem!
(JOHN JOHN, 22 February 2015 01:57)
Eventually the logic of sensible cooperation between ALL European states (Russia is Europe too) will be irresistible and our mad cousins from across the ocean will leave the continent alone.
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
Russia is aware of the advanced Shield technology of the US. Putin watches with envy, the successful application of the Shield in protecting Israel from fanatic Arabs. The bottom line, which Putin knows very well, is that far more NATO missiles will reach their mark in Russia than the other way around. So, in the end, Vlad will take one of those little pills that will reduce his aggression to a tolerable level. And then Putin will sound Russia's retreat from ALL of the Ukraine. Instead, little Vlad can go home and kick his dog.
(EU Citizen, 21 February 2015 06:17)
The solution is actually these 14 words Tim:
"Europe will be free and whole when NATO disbands and the USA stops warmongering".
That's the key, Ukraine is just a symptom, not the cause, we've got to get these lunatic Dr Strangelove types in NATO HQ packing back to Washington.
To say that "Putin started it" is completely ridiculous, are we seriously to believe that the coup last year was planned by the Kremlin so that unrest would ensue giving Russia a reason to intervene? If you believe that then their definitely were no moon landings :)
No, Putin is reacting desperately to provocation created by the USA (the $5B remember?) designed so "NATO can come to the rescue".
It's all so obvious to serious people that it's a joke. But you keep trying Tim to turn things inside out, it's always good for a laugh.
Eventually the logic of sensible cooperation between ALL European states (Russia is Europe too) will be irresistible and our mad cousins from across the ocean will leave the continent alone.
(commentator, 19 February 2015 01:11)
The only way to achieve peace in former Ukraine is for the criminal murderous American installed Zionist-Nazi junta to be militarily crushed. Until that happens the carnage will continue. Freedom for Novorossiya and her long suffering people!
(Jim, 20 February 2015 12:33)
The Ukrainians should have left the Russian in Eastern Ukraine in Peace and ukraine would have had peace.
Instead the embarked upon an Military offensive against the Russians and now they have to pay the price for their Foolishness listening to their Western supporters.
Its the Western Economical greed for the resourses in Eastern Ukraine which Fuels this war all the time.
Continue with that and the peoples of Central-Europe will pay an even heavier price in deaths because,
you can not win by provoking the Russians and Russia.
It will be the West who will back down and abandon their support to Ukraine and Balticum,
they will not risk a Worldwar for those countries with millions and millons of deaths.
Now, that is a word composition I never thought of seeing. Kudos my friend, you have reached incredible heights of creativity. Is it really yours or did you pick it up from RT and similar :).
(Reader, 22 February 2015 18:09)
Of course you are.So is the albo icj1.All troll are.However, be aware all trolls will run forcover pretty soon.
(Gotsefromohrid, 20 February 2015 18:39)
Interesting. Why are Ukraine borders sacred while Yugolavian borders were not? Why is Ukraine important to be kept intact while Serbia has to be broken up?
Is international law not the same for all?
US has broken international law so many times in Europe but now wants to lecture the Russians on it.
You can't accuse Russia of hypocracy because hypocracy was the face of US first.
(Peggy, 24 February 2015 03:23)
First of all, according to the CE of B92 forums sj, the US has collapsed and run out of cash so obviously the $5B is a myth, always according to the CE of B92 forums sj.
Second, Putin is not reacting to anything in Ukraine because according to the Kremlin, Russia is not involved at all in Ukraine. You don't believe the Kremlin in regards to that?!
P.S. CE = Chief Economist.
(icj1, 19 February 2015 23:21)
The CTC has got you there, commentator. The CTC is using his special Albanian calculator that only multiplies but never dives or subtracts so you get 2+2=72.
CTC are you sure you’re not using Timothy Ash as a nom deplume? His analysis is exactly as yours – a complete mystery to all but himself.
P.S. CTC = Chief Toilet Cleaner
(sj, 23 February 2015 11:49)