"Angela Merkel faced down Russian bear in battle for Europe"
In 2014, the battle for Europe’s future has been fought between two leaders: Russian president Vladimir Putin and German chancellor Angela Merkel.
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The contrast between them could not be sharper. There the Russian man: macho, militarist, practitioner of the Soviet-style big lie (Russian soldiers in Crimea? What soldiers?), a resentful post-imperial nationalist who in a recent press conference compared Russia to an embattled bear. Here the German woman: gradualist, quietly plain-speaking, consensus-building, strongest on economic power, patiently steering a slow-moving, sovereignty-sharing, multinational European tortoise. 19th-century methods confront 21st-century ones; Mars, the god of war, against Mercury, the god of trade; guns versus butter. For the first half of 2014, the bear was making the running, but now, with the Russian economy close to meltdown, it seems the tortoise may be winning after all.
Merkel has long been recognised as Europe’s leading politician, but this year, during the crisis over Ukraine, she became its leading stateswoman. I remain critical of her handling of the eurozone crisis, but I have only admiration for how she has addressed the return of war to European soil on the hundredth anniversary of 1914.
At the beginning of this year, German president Joachim Gauck, an east German Protestant, took up the appeal that other Europeans had already made for Germany to assume more leadership responsibility in Europe. In the course of the year, Merkel, an east German Protestant, has answered that appeal. The eastern half of Europe is her world. She has it in her bones. She understands it.
One of the early influences on her was a teacher of Russian. As a schoolgirl, she won East Germany’s Russian-language Olympiad. On her office wall, she has a portrait of Sophie von Anhalt-Zerbst, the Pomeranian princess who became Empress Catherine the Great of Russia. She can speak to Putin in Russian, as he can to her in German.
Both were in east Germany in 1989 – he as a KGB officer, she as a young scientist – and the lessons they drew were diametrically opposed. In domestic politics she can appear the perfect tactician, tacking this way and that, ruthless as Catherine the Great in seeing off challenges to her power. But in this European crisis, two profound, personal commitments of a Protestant east German of her generation have come to the fore: to peace and to freedom.
In a powerful speech delivered in Sydney last month, she excoriated what Putin has done in Ukraine, referring back to the shared experience from which the two leaders drew such different conclusions: “Who would have thought it possible that 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall … something like this could happen in the middle of Europe? Old thinking in terms of spheres of influence, whereby international law is trampled underfoot, must not be allowed to prevail.”
Earlier in the same speech, she reflected on the lessons of 1914. She has thought hard about the argument made by the historian Christopher Clark in The Sleepwalkers, his masterly account of how Europe stumbled into the first world war. If European leaders went sleepwalking 100 years ago, they must learn the lessons of history and wake up to the danger today. That is why she has talked to Putin more than any other world leader has: 35 phone calls in the first eight months of this year, according to figures released by the Kremlin. (Tellingly, she is also the world leader to whom the American president has spoken most often.)
As she never tires of repeating, her strategy has three prongs: support for Ukraine, diplomacy with Russia and sanctions to bring Putin to the negotiating table. To see Germany leading the way in economic sanctions against Russia is extraordinary. In the early 1990s, I wrote a history of West Germany’s Ostpolitik, culminating in German unification, and the first commandment of that Ostpolitik was that eastern trade should always go on. Sanctions were called for by the US and resisted by Germany. Today, Germany has more trade with Russia than any other European power. Its energy, machine-tool and other eastward–oriented businesses form a powerful lobby, not least within Merkel’s own Christian Democratic Union. Yet she has taken them down the path of sanctions.
Of course Putin and the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine helped, especially with the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner in July. But, unlike in the eurozone crisis, she has led rather than followed German public opinion. She has faced down the so-called Putinversteher – those who show such “understanding” for Putin’s actions that they come close to excusing them. She has made the larger arguments, from history, about Europe, and they have resonated. I was particularly impressed by an interview I read with the boss of a German machine-tool company whose exports to Russia have been roughly halved following the imposition of sanctions. Yet this German industrialist said he fully supported them: “If [Neville] Chamberlain had imposed some sort of sanctions on Hitler, things would have been different. Both Hitler and Putin held their Olympics, and after his Olympics, Hitler went to war.”
What is more, she has made the case for sanctions powerfully to more reluctant members of the EU, notably Italy, but also smaller east European countries where Russia wields much influence. To be sure, the formal chair of last week’s European Council was the former Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk. It is a notable day in European history when a Pole speaks to Russia not just in Europe’s name but with the whole economic and political weight of a European Union behind him. But Tusk is Merkel’s trusted ally. Everyone knows she is Europe’s real chair. In her Sydney speech, she again emphasised the vital importance of European states “speaking with one voice”.
And then she has been lucky – an essential attribute for any successful stateswoman or statesman. (I can’t bring myself to write statesperson.) Without a spectacular fall in the price of oil, the sanctions, which are still patchy, and not supported by China and other important economic partners of Russia, would not have had this dramatic impact.
The battle of Europe is far from over. In Russia itself, deepening economic crisis will not necessarily translate into more accommodating policy. There is no route map to a post-Putin regime. The cornered bear may lash out. In the bloodied fields of eastern Ukraine, there is still the risk of a series of 1914-style miscalculations leading to an escalation. Russian military planes have flown into the air space of Baltic Nato members.
Nato’s article 5 says an attack on one is an attack on all, but what, in the 21st-century, is an attack? As the apparent North Korean hacking of Sony’s computers has reminded us, cyberattacks are not like uniformed infantry divisions marching across a well-marked frontier. What if Putin sends some more unacknowledged “little green men” to stir up trouble among ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic states?
So these are still perilous times, and 2015 may bring even larger challenges. But as 2014 draws to a close, I have no hesitation in concluding that Angela Merkel has been the stateswoman of the year.
This comment originally appeared on theguardian.com
Timothy Garton Ash is professor of European Studies at Oxford University, where he currently leads the freespeechdebate.com project, and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. His latest book is Facts are Subversive: Political Writing from a Decade Without a Name
Land and Liberty! Hitler's dirty and evil spirit still alive and kicking in all Roman Catholic hearts. Germany making it's third and final push and drive to own and control Europe. The Eastern Orthodox Slavic people only unhuman objects to be disposed by the Roman Catholic Empire. For ages Slavic Eastern Orthodox blood being spilled by evil and ruthless invaders who want to steal our ancient sacred lands. Today we are on the final battle grounds, there is no more retreat possible. Because of all this ongoing ancient evil hatred directed at Christian Eastern Orthodoxy the whole world will end up suffering in one way or another. Germany today in it's last stages of life, a horrible slow lingering death for satan. Russia today the most powerfull military country in the world allied with China and India vs. Roman Catholic Empire and Germany! For all Slavic Eastern Orthodox people living on earth or in Heaven with our Lord Crucified and Holy, the redemption we have waited for ages to know is near. Czar Vlade with angels on his shoulders and God behind him. Dear King of all Slavic Eastern Orthodox Slavic people who are in Heaven Crucified and Holy, Slavic Eastern Orthodox People Love Your Mother Earth, Land and Liberty, Better We All Die in Honor Fighting then die on our knees being slaves!!! God Bless our beloved Mother Russia and all Slavic Eastern Orthodox people in the world!!!
(Dragoljub Djurkovic, 28 December 2014 21:59)
What a pity! The professor TGA to comment like west propaganda of cold war era. (Not to be misunderstood, I am against east propaganda too. I expected something better from B92)
(GEORGIOS, 28 December 2014 16:48)
Nice article, but what will bring down Russia eventually is the fall of oil price.
A country like Russia that has no competitive industry which can even produce for the local demand but, like Saudi Arabia, only lives from exploiting its natural resources, lived will with the way too high oil and gas prices for more than a decade. Like Russia was bankrupt under Yeltzin (with oil price below 20$), it will go bankrupt again under Putin if the oil price will further slide.
All the people who praise Putin for bringing so much progress and wealth to Russia should praise G.W. Bush sen. instead for invading Iraq and creating tension that raised the oil price to > 100$. So, yes, Russia economically grew under Putin, but surely not because of Putin and his great economical knowledge and projects, but more like in spite of Putin.
And no, the falling oil price is no big conspiracy by whomever against Russia - the unnatural thing was the too high oil prices. Even with the current price of $60, they price increase was higher than the general inflation compared to the last two decades. Just look at a long-term oil price graph and you will see.
Interesting to observe is that sparking military conflicts like Putin did in Ukraine doesn't cause raise in oil price any more nowadays.
(Comm. Parrisson, 25 December 2014 09:02)
Well done B92! Not only did you use a piece from one of the biggest Russophobe main stream newspapers that firmly censors its own comment sections (unlike B92), you also deemed it fit this piece of tripe by TGA who is firmly stuck in the 1990s, like Francis Fukuyma who claime that liberal democracy at the end of the Cold War was 'the end of history'.
Merkel has done the bare minimum for the sake of the illusionary 'European unity' that is the joke of the 28 EU member state foreign policy by the lowest common denominator. Quite how Merkel has 'faced down the Russian bear' when Germany enjoys exclusive gas supplies via Nord Stream doesn't seem to count. It's the usual lying by ommission by humanitarian and self-important warriors like TGA. Don't let facts get in the way of opinon.
TGA is a polemicist, not a Russia expert. In his piece the only thing he just about doesn't do is strip off and get in to bed with her! But, arrogance being the forte of such people, it doesn't matter how ridiculous he sounds. As for leading free speech himself, he lives in a country where people go to prison for comments on twitter and facebook and his own university cancelled a debate because only boys were involved recently. Mustn't offend! What a joke.
(EU Dude, 24 December 2014 20:32)
Well done B92! Not only did you use a piece from one of the biggest Russophobe main stream newspapers that firmly censors its own comment sections (unlike B92), you also deemed it fit this piece of tripe by TGA who is firmly stuck in the 1990s, like Francis Fukuyma who claime that liberal democracy at the end of the Cold War was 'the end of history'.
Merkel has done the bare minimum for the sake of the illusionary 'European unity' that is the joke of the 28 EU member state foreign policy by the lowest common denominator. Quite how Merkel has 'faced down the Russian bear' when Germany enjoys exclusive gas supplies via Nord Stream doesn't seem to count. It's the usual lying by ommission by humanitarian and self-important warriors like TGA. Don't let facts get in the way of opinon.
TGA is a polemicist, not a Russia expert. In his piece the only thing he just about doesn't do is strip off and get in to bed with her! But, arrogance being the forte of such people, it doesn't matter how ridiculous he sounds. As for leading free speech himself, he lives in a country where people go to prison for comments on twitter and facebook and his own university cancelled a debate because only boys were involved recently. Mustn't offend! What a joke.
(EU Dude, 24 December 2014 20:32)
Land and Liberty! Hitler's dirty and evil spirit still alive and kicking in all Roman Catholic hearts. Germany making it's third and final push and drive to own and control Europe. The Eastern Orthodox Slavic people only unhuman objects to be disposed by the Roman Catholic Empire. For ages Slavic Eastern Orthodox blood being spilled by evil and ruthless invaders who want to steal our ancient sacred lands. Today we are on the final battle grounds, there is no more retreat possible. Because of all this ongoing ancient evil hatred directed at Christian Eastern Orthodoxy the whole world will end up suffering in one way or another. Germany today in it's last stages of life, a horrible slow lingering death for satan. Russia today the most powerfull military country in the world allied with China and India vs. Roman Catholic Empire and Germany! For all Slavic Eastern Orthodox people living on earth or in Heaven with our Lord Crucified and Holy, the redemption we have waited for ages to know is near. Czar Vlade with angels on his shoulders and God behind him. Dear King of all Slavic Eastern Orthodox Slavic people who are in Heaven Crucified and Holy, Slavic Eastern Orthodox People Love Your Mother Earth, Land and Liberty, Better We All Die in Honor Fighting then die on our knees being slaves!!! God Bless our beloved Mother Russia and all Slavic Eastern Orthodox people in the world!!!
(Dragoljub Djurkovic, 28 December 2014 21:59)
Nice article, but what will bring down Russia eventually is the fall of oil price.
A country like Russia that has no competitive industry which can even produce for the local demand but, like Saudi Arabia, only lives from exploiting its natural resources, lived will with the way too high oil and gas prices for more than a decade. Like Russia was bankrupt under Yeltzin (with oil price below 20$), it will go bankrupt again under Putin if the oil price will further slide.
All the people who praise Putin for bringing so much progress and wealth to Russia should praise G.W. Bush sen. instead for invading Iraq and creating tension that raised the oil price to > 100$. So, yes, Russia economically grew under Putin, but surely not because of Putin and his great economical knowledge and projects, but more like in spite of Putin.
And no, the falling oil price is no big conspiracy by whomever against Russia - the unnatural thing was the too high oil prices. Even with the current price of $60, they price increase was higher than the general inflation compared to the last two decades. Just look at a long-term oil price graph and you will see.
Interesting to observe is that sparking military conflicts like Putin did in Ukraine doesn't cause raise in oil price any more nowadays.
(Comm. Parrisson, 25 December 2014 09:02)
What a pity! The professor TGA to comment like west propaganda of cold war era. (Not to be misunderstood, I am against east propaganda too. I expected something better from B92)
(GEORGIOS, 28 December 2014 16:48)
Land and Liberty! Hitler's dirty and evil spirit still alive and kicking in all Roman Catholic hearts. Germany making it's third and final push and drive to own and control Europe. The Eastern Orthodox Slavic people only unhuman objects to be disposed by the Roman Catholic Empire. For ages Slavic Eastern Orthodox blood being spilled by evil and ruthless invaders who want to steal our ancient sacred lands. Today we are on the final battle grounds, there is no more retreat possible. Because of all this ongoing ancient evil hatred directed at Christian Eastern Orthodoxy the whole world will end up suffering in one way or another. Germany today in it's last stages of life, a horrible slow lingering death for satan. Russia today the most powerfull military country in the world allied with China and India vs. Roman Catholic Empire and Germany! For all Slavic Eastern Orthodox people living on earth or in Heaven with our Lord Crucified and Holy, the redemption we have waited for ages to know is near. Czar Vlade with angels on his shoulders and God behind him. Dear King of all Slavic Eastern Orthodox Slavic people who are in Heaven Crucified and Holy, Slavic Eastern Orthodox People Love Your Mother Earth, Land and Liberty, Better We All Die in Honor Fighting then die on our knees being slaves!!! God Bless our beloved Mother Russia and all Slavic Eastern Orthodox people in the world!!!
(Dragoljub Djurkovic, 28 December 2014 21:59)
Nice article, but what will bring down Russia eventually is the fall of oil price.
A country like Russia that has no competitive industry which can even produce for the local demand but, like Saudi Arabia, only lives from exploiting its natural resources, lived will with the way too high oil and gas prices for more than a decade. Like Russia was bankrupt under Yeltzin (with oil price below 20$), it will go bankrupt again under Putin if the oil price will further slide.
All the people who praise Putin for bringing so much progress and wealth to Russia should praise G.W. Bush sen. instead for invading Iraq and creating tension that raised the oil price to > 100$. So, yes, Russia economically grew under Putin, but surely not because of Putin and his great economical knowledge and projects, but more like in spite of Putin.
And no, the falling oil price is no big conspiracy by whomever against Russia - the unnatural thing was the too high oil prices. Even with the current price of $60, they price increase was higher than the general inflation compared to the last two decades. Just look at a long-term oil price graph and you will see.
Interesting to observe is that sparking military conflicts like Putin did in Ukraine doesn't cause raise in oil price any more nowadays.
(Comm. Parrisson, 25 December 2014 09:02)
Well done B92! Not only did you use a piece from one of the biggest Russophobe main stream newspapers that firmly censors its own comment sections (unlike B92), you also deemed it fit this piece of tripe by TGA who is firmly stuck in the 1990s, like Francis Fukuyma who claime that liberal democracy at the end of the Cold War was 'the end of history'.
Merkel has done the bare minimum for the sake of the illusionary 'European unity' that is the joke of the 28 EU member state foreign policy by the lowest common denominator. Quite how Merkel has 'faced down the Russian bear' when Germany enjoys exclusive gas supplies via Nord Stream doesn't seem to count. It's the usual lying by ommission by humanitarian and self-important warriors like TGA. Don't let facts get in the way of opinon.
TGA is a polemicist, not a Russia expert. In his piece the only thing he just about doesn't do is strip off and get in to bed with her! But, arrogance being the forte of such people, it doesn't matter how ridiculous he sounds. As for leading free speech himself, he lives in a country where people go to prison for comments on twitter and facebook and his own university cancelled a debate because only boys were involved recently. Mustn't offend! What a joke.
(EU Dude, 24 December 2014 20:32)
What a pity! The professor TGA to comment like west propaganda of cold war era. (Not to be misunderstood, I am against east propaganda too. I expected something better from B92)
(GEORGIOS, 28 December 2014 16:48)